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If this is your first visit to this page, you might want to review some definitions, a description of this analysis, a list of the data sources, and assumptions. Otherwise…

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Description of Analysis, Data Sources and Assumptions

I collect numbers relating to the COVID-19 pandemic and create graphs in an attempt to visualize what is going on, and how different parts of the world are coping. Only reputable data sources are used, but the analysis is mine and the comments represent only my opinions. Feel free to disagree. Leave a comment!

A bit of terminology first:

Reported Case: this is a person who has, or had, a confirmed case of the virus. Reported case count never goes down, even when recovery (or death) happens. The only times it would go down is if there was a misdiagnosis (or a reporting error).  It is simply a reported case that happened. It is absolutely true that reported cases do not represent all cases,  reported cases only represent those cases that have been reported, tested, and confirmed. So its probably fair to say that reported cases are just the bad cases (and maybe also cases reported in essential/health care workers who are tested more routinely), not the mild cases where the person stayed at home to recover. However, as the testing rates increase, this number gets more and more accurate.

New Case: this is a reported case that was first reported today. The media generally presents new cases followed by reported cases. “Today there were 23 new cases for a total of 100 cases” for example.

Recovery
: A reported case that has now recovered. This can mean two negative tests in twenty four hour period, or perhaps the end of a two week isolation period with no more symptoms. There does not appear to be a common definition for recovery.

Death
: A reported case that has succumbed to the illness. Unless the health care system is completely overloaded, this almost always happens in a hospital.

Infection (or Active Infection): This is calculated by adding the recovery count and the death count and subtracting that total from the reported case count. For example, on a particular day if there are 100 reported cases, 35 recoveries and 5 deaths, the active infection count on that day is 100 – (35 + 5), which equals 60. The active infection count is a reasonable representation of the load on the health care system on that day. Even if there are many more unreported cases, they do not present a huge burden on the health care system because these people are likely at home recovering. Formula: Infections = Reported Cases – (Deaths + Recoveries)

Mortality Rate: this is the ratio of the number of deaths to the number of reported cases. This can be a bit misleading since there are usually a significant number of infections which have neither died nor recovered yet. The calculation of mortality rate assumes that all active infections will recover, so it tends to underestimate what the actual mortality rate will be when all reported cases have a known outcome. The mortality rate becomes more accurate as the number of cases with known outcomes grows closer to the total case count. Formula: Mortality Rate = Deaths / Reported Cases

Note:  Technically what I call Mortality Rate is more correctly known as Case Mortality Rate., since it is mortality as compared to cases. However, the mainstream media calls it mortality rate, and almost everybody I discuss this with has that same definition, so I will stick with the commonly understood definition. The proper definition for mortality rate is that it compares deaths against population (not against cases) and reflects the impact on the entire population, which factors in both the rate of infection and the impact of the infection. Thanks to Cally for correcting me on this, ever so politely. 🙂 

Recovery Rate: this is the ratio of the number of recoveries to the sum of recoveries and deaths. It shows, for those reported cases with a known outcome, what percentage of these cases have recovered. This will line up with mortality rate once all reported cases have a known outcome, and will get closer and closer to lining up with the mortality rate as the number of active infections drop. For example, in China in mid April (with very few active infections) the mortality rate was about 5% when the recovery rate was 94%. They were close to adding up to 100%. In the USA in mid April, (with many active infections), the recovery rate was 63% when the mortality rate was 5.3%. They were nowhere near to adding up to 100% yet. Formula: Recovery Rate = Recoveries / (Recoveries + Deaths)

The diagram below shows how reported cases are broken down into recoveries, deaths, and active infections, showing sample counts and the calculations of mortality and recovery rates.

 

And now some definitions about vaccines and vaccinations. I am thrilled that its time to start formulating these and tracking progress!

Vaccine: a medical compound which is intended to provide immunity to the COVID-19 virus through one or more vaccine doses.

Vaccine Dose: a single dose of a vaccine. Some vaccines require more than one dose per person, over a period of time, in order to achieve the intended immunity.

Vaccination: one or more vaccine doses (as required by the specific vaccine) which a single person receives to achieve the intended immunity of the vaccine.

Purchased Vaccination: a vaccination purchased, usually via a purchase agreement, sometimes in advance of vaccine approval, but usually in advance of vaccine availability. Some countries (like Canada) made agreement to purchase more vaccinations than their population could use, from different suppliers, since nobody could predict which supplier or which vaccine would be viable first. Since BC gets its vaccine supply as part of Canada’s purchasing arrangements, I don’t show any purchased vaccinations for BC, only scheduled, received, and injected.

Scheduled Vaccination: a purchased vaccination that is now scheduled to arrive at a certain time or over a certain period of time.

Received Vaccination: a scheduled or purchased vaccination that has been delivered by the manufacturer and received by the purchaser.

Injected Vaccination: a received vaccination that has made its way into the health system and been injected into a specific person. It might be the first vaccine dose if the specific vaccine requires more than one dose. The second or further vaccine doses, if required by the vaccine, is not counted as another injection for the purposes of tracking the delivery of vaccinations to the population of a region since it only helps one person.

Vaccinations as a percentage of population: The number of vaccinations purchased, scheduled, received, or injected in or by a region expressed as a percentage of the population of the region. Formula: Percentage of Vaccinations Purchased = Number of Purchased Vaccinations / Population of Region. In Canada for example, the percentage of vaccinations purchased is 492%. Yes, Canada made agreements to purchase enough vaccinations for about five times the population of the country. I truly hope that any unused vaccinations are shared with other regions or countries that did not, or could not, arrange to purchase in advance of availability.

To help understand what the case count graphs represent, consider the analogy of a car:

Lets say you have a parked car that you want to race. When the car is stopped its speed and acceleration are both zero. This is like a region of the world before any COVID-19 infections have started.

When the car starts to move, the speed starts to increase, which is acceleration. This is like a region of the world where COVID-19 infections have started. The speed of the car is like the rate of new cases (measured as new cases per day).The faster the car increases speed, the greater the acceleration rate. This is like the growth of the number of new cases from one day to the next.

When the car starts to maintain a steady speed, the acceleration goes to zero but the car is still moving. This is like a region that has more or less the same number of new cases each day. There are still new cases, just not more new cases each day than the day before.

To “flatten the curve”, the car needs to slow down to a steady speed such that active infections (total reported cases less recoveries and deaths) reach a steady count that does not exceed the capacity of the health care system. This happens when that steady number of active infections does not exceed health care system capacity at the time stability is attained, or with a period of deceleration, where the speed decreases until the capacity of the health care system is no longer exceeded by the number of active infections. 

Deceleration can be fast or slow. When deceleration happens in a region, the count of new cases every day begins to decrease, finally coming to near zero new cases every day. That is the goal – zero new cases each day, but the curve can be considered “flattened” when the number of active infections is stable and does not exceed the capacity of the health care system. This analysis reports the number of active infections (see Recovery charts), but does not attempt to assess if the capacity of the health care system has been exceeded.

To describe the state of some of the regions as of the end of March:

  • The Chinese car was slowing down and nearly stopped.
  • The Italian car was nearly at its top speed, but still gaining speed.
  • The USA car was accelerating rapidly, not yet at its top speed.
  • The BC car was at a relatively constant speed.
  • The Costa Rican car had just left the starting line.

Fairly simple to understand right?

To further this analogy, imagine that the car from each region has a different size engine (horsepower). This is like the population density of each region (people per square kilometer). And we want to see the race between each region’s car and China’s car. This seems useful because China was first region to be impacted by COVID-19 and we all saw the response and its impact on the news. By comparing a region with China we can measure how that region is doing, and what might yet happen in that region. In order to make a meaningful comparison I did two things:

  • I put each car on the starting line at the same time. This is done by moving the data from China forward in time to match up to the case 1 date with the particular region.
  • I adjusted the horsepower of the Chinese car to match the horsepower of the regional car. This is done by scaling the reported case counts from China proportionally to the population density of the region. That is to say that China’s case counts are scaled to match the population density of each region.

OK, that was a bit more complicated, but the idea is to make the cars start at the same time, with the same size engine, then see how the regional car does against what we know already happened with the Chinese car. Its a simple idea. Not perfect, but simple.

OK, one more extension of this “car” analogy…

Imagine that there are people on the race track and each driver is trying to avoid them, but inevitably hits and injures some people. Only some people are actually injured, and those people who are injured may recover, or they may succumb to their injuries. A better driver will hit less people and will also leave behind more people that are able to recover. This is like the percentage of recoveries in those reported cases that have a known outcome, ignoring active infections (because the outcome is not known yet). A better driver (who is careful driving, and has a good health care system) will result in a higher percentage of recoveries in those cases that have a known outcome, and this provides a view as to how well the population is recovering based on known outcomes only. Only when all reported cases have a known outcome will the mortality rate for the region will line up with this.

The comments found below the graph for each region provide the speed (new cases each day), and acceleration or deceleration (change in the number of new cases each day), and rating of the driver of the car (recovery percentage of reported cases with known outcomes) and reference this “car” analogy to make it easier to understand what the numbers mean.

These are the major assumptions and formulas used in these graphs and analysis

  • Formula: Adjusted_Case_1_Regional_Date = Date_of_Case_In_Region – (Case_1_Date_In_Region – Case_1_Date_In_China)
    The number of days from case 1 in China to case 1 in other regions was measured. This is used to slide the China data forwards in time to align with case 1 in the region. It ranges between 19 and 65 days difference in the date of case 1.
  • Formula: Adjusted_China_Case_Count = ( China_Case_Count ) / ( (China_Population / China_Land_Mass) / (Regional_Population / Regional_Land_Mass) ).
    Given that different regions have different population densities, which would likely impact the infection rate, The populations and land mass areas were looked up to create population density numbers (people per square km). Population density ratios between China and other regions are calculated and used that to scale the Chinese data down in a linear fashion. This is a major simplifying assumption which undoubtedly introduces error, but I believe it brings the analysis closer to the truth than simply ignoring population density.Google was used to find populations and land masses.
  • Different data sets are reported in different time zones so the data may be off by a day or so in some cases.

I chose a particular set of regions to analyze:

  • China – as the starting point for this virus and the first worldwide experience of this outbreak. China seemed like a good region to compare to.
  • Canada and BC – because I live in BC, which is a province of Canada
  • Netherlands – because I have family there
  • Costa Rica – because I have family there too
  • Italy – because of the tremendous impact this is having there
  • USA – because anything of this scale happening in the USA will undoubtedly impact the rest of the world
  • Sweden – because they are less strict about locking down, depending on their people to take the right measures without needing the enforcement.
  • World – because its the whole world!

Only reputable data sources are used as listed below.

  • World Health Organization – for Case and Death counts in China and the world. Updated with a situation report once per day. I note that the Canada numbers reported here are a day or two behind Canada CDC and are likely a day or two behind most areas of the world because it takes time to collect and report. There was a jump in reported cases mid February which reflects a change in the way the WHO collected and reported data.
  • Canadian Public Health – for Case and Death counts in Canada. Updated several times per day.
  • CTV News – for verification against Canada Public Health and for Canadian recovery data.
  • USA Center for Disease Control – for Case and Death counts in USA. This site is updated every weekday, but not always on weekends, which seems strange to me.
  • British Columbia Center for Disease Control – for Case, Death, and Recovery counts in BC. Updated several times a day.
  • RIVM Netherlands for Case and Death counts in the Netherlands.
  • Johns Hopkins GIS App for recovery counts if I cannot find them on region specific CDC sites
  • World Odometer for recovery counts if I can’t find them elsewhere.
  • CTV News has established a vaccination tracking website for Canada.

Since some of these sites do not publish their own historical data, and since I only started collecting systematically in early March, I used the Way Back web site to collect some of the historical data. Not every day was captured by Way Back so there are some gaps in the data which make some of the graphs a bit “choppy” in January and February, but I did get historical data at least weekly using that approach. 

The following data has been used to display or adjust the regional data in order to compare it to China.

The following charts and analysis are created on this basis. They are updated once a day (usually in the evening Pacific Daylight Time) and should be normally one day behind today’s date.

Quick Links

Mon 25-Jan-21 *New Today*

  1. Top 5 countries by case count: USA, India, Brazil, Russia, UK.  Italy has crept into 8th place.
  2. USA’s daily rate of new cases is very very high, but it is decelerating again.
  3. Costa Rica’s daily rate of new cases is stabilizing and in fact slowing slightly. 
  4. Netherland’s daily rate of new cases is decelerating. New lockdown measures were announced 14-Oct-20.
  5. BC’s daily rate of new cases is decelerating and the active infection line is going down. New lockdown measures were announced 7-Nov-20 and were extended to 19-Jan-21 on 5-Jan-21. Stay vigilant!
  6. Italy’s daily rate of new cases is clearly decelerating. The daily rate of new cases is definitely slowing. The Active Infection line is also dropping which means the second wave curve of active infections appears to have been flattened.
  7. Sweden’s daily rate of new cases is decelerating.
  8. Canada’s daily rate of new cases is decelerating again and the active infection line is flattening.
  9. China continues to recover well. The daily rate of new cases is at a nearly constant, low speed and the active infection line is very low and nearly flat, but there has been a recent spike in new cases.

Vaccination Milestones

Fall 2020: Canada arranges to purchase 214 million doses (for 107 million people) from seven suppliers. Source: CTV News.  

07-Dec-20: Canada does a trial run of deliveries of vaccines in anticipation of the delivery of 250,000 doses (for 125,000 people) expected next week shipped to direct to fourteen distribution centers across the country. Source: CTV News

08-Dec-20: First Pfizer vaccination on a non-trial basis happened in the UK. Source: CTV News.

09-Dec-20: BC is expecting 4,000 Pfizer doses (enough for 2000 people) by mid December. Source: BC CTV News. Canada unveils its Immunization Plan where they expect three million Canadians to be vaccinated by and of March 2021.

10-Dec-20: BC is expecting 40,000 Pfizer doses (enough for 20,000 people) of the 250,000 doses that Canada announced on 7-Dec, to be delivered by the end of December. Source: BC CTV News  

11-Dec-20: BC is expecting to have 400,000 people vaccinated by end of March 2021. Source: CBC News

14-Dec-20: BC has received enough Pfizer vaccine for 2,000 people. Source: CBC News. Canada has received enough Pfizer vaccine for 15,000 people. Source: Aerotime News . The first vaccination in Canada was injected today.

15-Dec-20: BC injects first dose of Pfizer. Source: CBC News. Canada confirms 168,000 Moderna doses (84,000 vaccinations) to arrive before end of year and an additional 1,000,000 Pfizer doses (500,000 vaccinations) to arrive before the end of year. Source: CTV News

16-Dec-20: Canada announces that all Canadians who want a vaccination will be vaccinated by September 2021. Source: CBC News. BC has injected 407 people so far. Source: CBC News

17-Dec-20: BC has injected 1,215 people so far. Source: Tri City News

18-Dec-20: Canada announces 125,000 doses (72,500 people) every week, with 500,000 doses (250,000 people) by end of January. Source: Global News. BC has vaccinated 2,592 people. Source: Global News.

21-Dec-20: Canada gets closer to approving Moderna vaccine. Source: Global News.

22-Dec-20: 4,108 people vaccinated in BC. Source: Global News.

23-Dec-20: 5.603 people vaccinated in BC. Expecting 792,000 to be vaccinated by end of March. Source: CBC News. Canada approves Moderna vaccine. Canada expects to have 1.2 million doses (600,000 people) by end of January. Source: CBC News.

27-Dec-20: BC identifies first UK variant on Vancouver Island. Source: CBC News.

29-Dec-20: BC has administered 11,930 vaccinations. Source: CBC News.

30-Dec-20: Canadian vaccinations are being tracked by CTV. Source: CTV News.

22-Jan-21: BC unveils its immunization strategy. Source: CBC News

Vaccination Status - Canada and BC

25-Jan-21 Comment: Canada has purchased a total of 107,000,000 vaccinations (284.7% of the population), has scheduled the delivery of a total of 3,584,000 vaccinations (9.5% of the population), has received a total of 561,225 vaccinations (1.49% of the population), has injected a total of 745,530 first vaccination doses (1.9833% of the population). Canada has agreements with seven vaccine manufacturers. There are plans for 600,000 vaccinations to be to be available by end of March.

25-Jan-21 Comment: BC has scheduled the delivery of a total of 792,000 vaccinations (15.6% of the population), has received a total of 72,275 vaccinations (1.43% of the population), has injected a total of 116,657 first vaccination doses (2.3005% of the population). 20,000 vaccinations planned by end of 2020. In total 400,000 people are to be vaccinated by the end of March.

Data Sources: CTV News and CBC News (links are above in the Vaccination Milestones section, and definitions are further above in the Definitions section).

Today's Numbers

Comments on Today’s Numbers

  • There will be no publish on Saturdays and Sundays and Canadian statutory holidays since several regions no longer report on the weekends.
  • Recovery Counts seem unusually low in some regions. Netherlands recovery numbers are very low per reported case compared to other regions, perhaps they use a different measurement to determine recovery. Therefore the active infection line for the Netherlands follows the case count line very closely. Swedish recovery numbers are now reported as unavailable on Johns Hopkins, so the active infection and recovery curves have been removed. However, Johns Hopkins case counts and mortality data are well aligned to regional CDCs. BC CDC and Canada Public Health publishes BC and Canadian recovery respectively data so I have confidence in the Canadian recovery numbers.
  • Some metrics on the numbers: As of 25-Jan-21, over the period from 03-Jan-20 to 25-Jan-21 (389 days), there have been 10,149 individual numbers collected for 9 regions, which are used to form these graphs and analysis. The main Excel spreadsheet has 105 columns of calculations across 3,209 rows of data, making 336,945 individual calculations. There are fourteen Visual Basic functions and seventeen worksheets in the spreadsheet. Each day forty-one new numbers are collected and verified from eight independent web sites. It takes four CPUs and 3.4 minutes for the spreadsheet to grind out the graphs and analysis. Some manual written analysis is created and entered. Then it takes about twenty minutes to copy and paste the results to my website. This is not a funded service and is free from any political interference. Just saying…

Cases in all Regions

25-Jan-21 Comment: The USA has the most cases per capita over analyzed regions, followed by Netherlands. Netherlands, Sweden, Costa Rica, and Italy are well below the USA, but Netherlands and Sweden are keeping pace in a tight pack. Canada is just above the world average. BC, then China are below the World average, but BC is getting very close to the World average. China’s total case count is now lower than any other analyzed region, and is very low per capita compared to other regions. Data Sources: WHO, Johns Hopkins, Canada Public Health, CTV News, BC CDC.

Deaths in all Regions

25-Jan-21 Comment: Italy has the most deaths per capita in analyzed regions. Italy, USA, Sweden, Netherlands, Costa Rica and Canada are all above the World average. BC and China are below the World average. Mortality rate (deaths per reported cases) for analyzed regions ranges from 1.3% in Costa Rica to 4.8% in China. Recovery rate (recoveries per reported cases with known outcomes) for analyzed regions ranges from 47.8% in Netherlands to 98.3% in Costa Rica. Data Sources: WHO, Johns Hopkins, Canada Health, BC CDC, USA CDC.

Tests

25-Jan-21 Comment: BC has performed 1,663,576 tests (32.8% of the population). Canada has performed 17,086,340 tests (45.5% of the population). The USA has performed 293,694,286 tests (89.8% of the population). The USA has tested at a much higher rate than both Canada and BC. BC is testing at just about three quarters the rate of Canada as a whole. Data Sources: Johns Hopkins, Canada Public Health, BC CDC.

World Case Counts

25-Jan-21 Comment: The World reported 524,763 new cases in the last day, (17% more than the prior day which had 449,286 new cases), for a total of 99,660,483 cases. The number of new cases is high over the last 7 days (an average of 604,314 new cases per day). In the last 7 days, the speed of the World’s car is high but it is very slowly decelerating. In the World the number of active infections is increasing slowly over the last 7 days (an average increase of 100,418 active infections each day), with a current total of 26,920,695 active infections. The World reported 10,335 new deaths over the last day, for a total of 2,138,299 deaths. This is 10% more than the prior day, which had 9,353 new deaths. The mortality rate in the World is 2.1%. Based on recoveries vs deaths (97%) so far, the driver of this car is a good driver. The World reported the highest daily number of new cases (1,491,842) 6.3 weeks ago on 12-Dec-20, the highest active infection count (26,920,695) today on 25-Jan-21, and the highest daily deaths (29,882) 8.9 months ago on 02-May-20. The second wave is quite obvious at the world level. Data Sources: Johns Hopkins/World Odometer recoveries.

China Case Counts

25-Jan-21 Comment: China reported 205 new cases in the last day, (25% more than the prior day which had 164 new cases), for a total of 100,136 cases. The number of new cases is almost stopped over the last 7 days (an average of 188 new cases per day). In the last 7 days, the speed of China’s car is almost stopped and it is at a nearly constant speed. In China the number of active infections is increasing very, very slowly over the last 7 days (an average increase of 113 active infections each day), with a current total of 3,550 active infections. China reported 1 new deaths over the last day, for a total of 4,811 deaths. This is 100% more than the prior day, which had 0 new deaths. The mortality rate in China is 4.8%. Based on recoveries vs deaths (95%) so far, the driver of this car is a poor driver. China reports 0.01 times the world per capita case count, 0.01 times the world per capita death count, and zero times the world per capita active infection count. China reported the highest daily number of new cases (357) 10 days ago on 15-Jan-21, the highest active infection count (3,550) today on 25-Jan-21, and the highest daily deaths (1,290) 9.4 months ago on 17-Apr-20. There have been 12,806 new cases reported since 18-May, when two new outbreaks were reported in China by the media, then another outbreak reported 13-Jun. Overall China is recovering well, with much lower cases per capita than all analyzed regions. 注意安全 Data Sources: WHO / Johns Hopkins recoveries.

Netherlands Case Counts

25-Jan-21 Comment: Netherlands reported 4,041 new cases in the last day, (18% less than the prior day which had 4,940 new cases), for a total of 966,194 cases. The number of new cases is extremely high over the last 7 days (an average of 5,333 new cases per day). In the last 7 days, the speed of Netherlands’s car is extremely high but it is slowly decelerating. In Netherlands the number of active infections is increasing extremely rapidly over the last 7 days (an average increase of 5,177 active infections each day), with a current total of 939,998 active infections. Netherlands reported 40 new deaths over the last day, for a total of 13,686 deaths. This is 33% more than the prior day, which had 30 new deaths. The mortality rate in Netherlands is 1.4%. Based on recoveries vs deaths (48%) so far, the driver of this car is a very bad driver. Netherlands reports 4.4 times the world per capita case count, 2.9 times the world per capita death count, and 15.8 times the world per capita active infection count. Netherlands reported the highest daily number of new cases (13,050) 5.1 weeks ago on 20-Dec-20, the highest active infection count (939,998) today on 25-Jan-21, and the highest daily deaths (241) 9.8 months ago on 07-Apr-20. There was significant acceleration in late July as the economy began re-opening, then again in October and December, but daily new case counts are decelerating again. The third wave is apparent in the average daily new cases line. Recoveries seem unusually low compared to other regions. Blijf Veilig! Data Source: Johns Hopkins.

Italy Case Counts

25-Jan-21 Comment: Italy reported 8,559 new cases in the last day, (26% less than the prior day which had 11,628 new cases), for a total of 2,475,372 cases. The number of new cases is extremely high over the last 7 days (an average of 12,674 new cases per day). In the last 7 days, the speed of Italy’s car is extremely high but it is slowly decelerating. In Italy the number of active infections is decreasing very rapidly over the last 7 days (an average decrease of 7,832 active infections each day), with a current total of 491,630 active infections. Italy reported 420 new deaths over the last day, for a total of 85,881 deaths. This is 40% more than the prior day, which had 299 new deaths. The mortality rate in Italy is 3.5%. Based on recoveries vs deaths (96%) so far, the driver of this car is a poor driver. Italy reports 3.2 times the world per capita case count, 5.2 times the world per capita death count, and 2.4 times the world per capita active infection count. Italy reported the highest daily number of new cases (40,902) 2.4 months ago on 13-Nov-20, the highest active infection count (805,947) 2.1 months ago on 22-Nov-20, and the highest daily deaths (1,056) 9.8 months ago on 06-Apr-20. The curve had more than flattened for Italy by September, then daily case counts and active infections in October/November surpassed those in March/April, but daily new case counts have clearly decelerated again. Rimanga sicuro! Data Source: Johns Hopkins.

Sweden Case Counts

25-Jan-21: No updated case data available.

22-Jan-21 Comment: Sweden reported 4,214 new cases in the last day, (15% less than the prior day which had 4,985 new cases), for a total of 547,166 cases. The number of new cases is extremely high over the last 7 days (an average of 3,358 new cases per day). In the last 7 days, the speed of Sweden’s car is extremely high but it is very rapidly decelerating. In Sweden the number of active infections is increasing extremely rapidly over the last 7 days (an average increase of 3,257 active infections each day), with a current total of 531,190 active infections. Sweden reported 84 new deaths over the last day, for a total of 11,005 deaths. This is 32% less than the prior day, which had 124 new deaths. The mortality rate in Sweden is 2.0%. Sweden reports 4.3 times the world per capita case count, 4.0 times the world per capita death count. Sweden reported the highest daily number of new cases (9,654) 5 weeks ago on 18-Dec-20, and the highest daily deaths (351) 8 days ago on 14-Jan-21. Sweden’s response, with limited economic closures, is intended to result in little or no second wave of infections. Clearly this failed as the second wave is quite obvious, but daily new case counts are decelerating again. Var försiktig! Data Source: Johns Hopkins.

Costa Rica Case Counts

25-Jan-21 Comment: Costa Rica reported 479 new cases in the last day, (0% more than the prior day which had 479 new cases), for a total of 190,745 cases. The number of new cases is very high over the last 7 days (an average of 664 new cases per day). In the last 7 days, the speed of Costa Rica’s car is very high but it is rapidly decelerating. In Costa Rica the number of active infections is decreasing over the last 7 days (an average decrease of 179 active infections each day), with a current total of 39,038 active infections. Costa Rica reported 13 new deaths over the last day, for a total of 2,558 deaths. This is 7% less than the prior day, which had 14 new deaths. The mortality rate in Costa Rica is 1.3%. Based on recoveries vs deaths (98%) so far, the driver of this car is a very good driver. Costa Rica reports 3.0 times the world per capita case count, 1.9 times the world per capita death count, and 2.3 times the world per capita active infection count. Costa Rica reported the highest daily number of new cases (1,556) 4.3 months ago on 18-Sep-20, the highest active infection count (51,375) 7.7 weeks ago on 02-Dec-20, and the highest daily deaths (25) 3.4 months ago on 15-Oct-20. The very strict response (curfews, limited driving days) in Costa Rica seemed to be working well in May, but this second wave is significantly bigger than the first wave. Over the past weeks the growth is stabilizing, which is good news. ¡Mantenerse a salvo! Data Source: Johns Hopkins.

USA Case Counts

25-Jan-21 Comment: The USA reported 148,092 new cases in the last day, (13% more than the prior day which had 131,195 new cases), for a total of 25,261,902 cases. The number of new cases is extremely high over the last 7 days (an average of 174,894 new cases per day). In the last 7 days, the speed of the USA’s car is extremely high but it is very rapidly decelerating. In the USA the number of active infections is increasing extremely rapidly over the last 7 days (an average increase of 30,024 active infections each day), with a current total of 9,223,579 active infections. The USA reported 1,866 new deaths over the last day, for a total of 420,963 deaths. This is 6% more than the prior day, which had 1,760 new deaths. The mortality rate in the USA is 1.7%. Based on recoveries vs deaths (97%) so far, the driver of this car is a good driver. The USA reports 6.0 times the world per capita case count, 4.7 times the world per capita death count, and 8.2 times the world per capita active infection count. The USA reported the highest daily number of new cases (293,030) 3.3 weeks ago on 02-Jan-21, the highest active infection count (9,808,154) 6 weeks ago on 14-Dec-20, and the highest daily deaths (4,648) 13 days ago on 12-Jan-21. The jump in recoveries in early December is because Johns Hopkins is no longer reporting USA recoveries, so I have switched to World Odometer. After a period of explosive growth in July, daily case counts had slowed somewhat in August/September, then picked up speed again in October/November, then again in December/January, but it is starting to slow again in mid January. Looks like a third wave in the USA. Our thoughts and prayers are with our American brothers and sisters. Stay safe! Data Sources: Johns Hopkins/World Odometer recoveries.

Canada Case Counts

25-Jan-21 Comment: Canada reported 5,201 new cases in the last day, (0% less than the prior day which had 5,202 new cases), for a total of 753,011 cases. The number of new cases is very high over the last 7 days (an average of 5,514 new cases per day). In the last 7 days, the speed of Canada’s car is very high but it is decelerating. In Canada the number of active infections is decreasing rapidly over the last 7 days (an average decrease of 1,553 active infections each day), with a current total of 62,447 active infections. Canada reported 137 new deaths over the last day, for a total of 19,238 deaths. This is 1% more than the prior day, which had 136 new deaths. The mortality rate in Canada is 2.6%. Based on recoveries vs deaths (97%) so far, the driver of this car is a good driver. Canada reports 1.6 times the world per capita case count, 1.9 times the world per capita death count, and 0.5 times the world per capita active infection count. Canada reported the highest daily number of new cases (9,214) 2.4 weeks ago on 08-Jan-21, the highest active infection count (82,522) 2 weeks ago on 11-Jan-21, and the highest daily deaths (289) 8.7 months ago on 08-May-20. Overall case counts are clearly decelerating. New restrictions mid January in Ontario and Quebec. Stay safe! Data Source: Canada Public Health.

BC Case Counts

25-Jan-21 Comment: BC reported 346 new cases in the last day, (27% less than the prior day which had 472 new cases), for a total of 64,828 cases. The number of new cases is high over the last 7 days (an average of 498 new cases per day). In the last 7 days, the speed of BC’s car is high and it is very slowly accelerating. In BC the number of active infections is increasing very slowly over the last 7 days (an average increase of 34 active infections each day), with a current total of 5,843 active infections. BC reported 9 new deaths over the last day, for a total of 1,154 deaths. This is 13% more than the prior day, which had 8 new deaths. The mortality rate in BC is 1.8%. Based on recoveries vs deaths (98%) so far, the driver of this car is a very good driver. BC reports 1.0 times the world per capita case count, 0.8 times the world per capita death count, and 0.3 times the world per capita active infection count. BC reported the highest daily number of new cases (996) 2.1 months ago on 24-Nov-20, the highest active infection count (11,100) 5.6 weeks ago on 17-Dec-20, and the highest daily deaths (28) 5.3 weeks ago on 19-Dec-20. New case counts accelerated in October/November, but daily new cases have clearly decelerated again. We must stay vigilant or we will lose all our progress. Stay safe! Data Source: BC CDC.

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